market timing
S&P 500 Strained, Time to Head to the Sidelines
Apparently the secret formula for bullishness is quantitative easing. Never mind the fact that the Fed’s decision to (further) lower interest rates doesn’t directly create jobs, nor does it prompt a bank to suddenly determine a potential borrower is more credit-worthy. The market just wanted to see evidence that the Fed was ahead of the [...]
‘Good News/Bad News’ For the Market Still the Norm
The good news/bad news duality lingers…. and we have to acknowledge the scales actually tipped in favor of the good news this past week. Let’s lay out the arguments from each side of the table.
The bulls are saying….
1. The late rally on Friday is a huge testament to the ultimate conviction of the market. Buying [...]
NASDAQ Leading S&P 500 In Rally, But Headwind Dead Ahead
It’s a clear good news/bad news scenario for the major indices. Let’s just approach it from that perspective, beginning with the S&P 500.
The good news is….
The S&P 500 Index has crossed back above the 50-day moving average line (purple), which had been a resistance line with the bullishness from three weeks ago.
The VIX is trending [...]
Why the Market Does What it Does (& What It Will Do Next)
The S&P 500 managed to gain 4.5% last week, overcoming a big Wednesday pullback, and more than offsetting the previous week’s 1.2% loss.
So what happened in the meantime to turn investors back on again? Economy? No, the new unemployment claims figure is back in the ‘too high’ area, and real estate appears to be crumbling [...]
Weekly Outlook - Despite Google, Earnings Still Normal
Believe it or not, it actually wasn’t a bad week - Friday ruined what would have otherwise been a winning week, thanks to the worst possible news at the worst possible time (Google’s shortfall, and the Citigroup and Bank of America’s declining revenue).
Will this carry through into this week? Will this week’s slew of real [...]
What the Bears Are Saying/What the Bulls Are Saying
Is the glass half full, or half empty? Maybe both. It’s not going to stay half-and-half for long though. Here are the arguments both sides are making. They’re important to define, as changes to them (or lack thereof) will confirm or abate the looming re-entry in to a full-blown bear market.
The bears are saying…..
1. All [...]
Earnings Numbers the ‘Crash’ Pundits Are Ignoring
Spooked? Most investors are rattled following Tuesday’s 3% implosion, fueled largely by a sudden and unexpected dip in Consumer Confidence (more below), and an adjustment in China’s growth rate - as evidenced by a leading indicators index - for April (from 1.7% to 0.3%). The question is, is this cause for worry? Though the answer [...]
Stop the Market, I Want to Get Off
Is that how you feel right now? You want to get off this crazy ride? If you’re like most investors, probably so. Here’s some perspective that will help you navigate through what is hopefully the last part of a volatile period (for better or worse).
First and foremost, know that a meltdown isn’t a forgone conclusions. [...]
Gleaning the Clues - What’s Next For the Market, S&P 500?
Friday’s close of 1064.88 was the worst close of the year for the S&P 500. While it’s still a little soon to say the long-term support line (red) has been broken, it’s easy to say it’s under a serious attack. A couple more days of this, and it will snap.
What’s interesting about this chart of [...]
May - In Like a Lion, Out Like a Lion
May was in like a lion, and out like a lion - stocks lost more than 8% for the month, which was the single worst month since the bull market began back in March of 2009. An omen of more trouble to come? There’s certainly not a lack of arguments to suggest that. On the [...]
