Economic Calendar for Week of 5/16 - Capacity & Productivity Firm
It was a fairly modest week on the economic front, not in terms of the number of economic announcements, but in terms of impact. Unemployment claims - new as well as ongoing - continues to sink (444K and 4627K, respectively), and are now in their fourth week of a downtrend….. modest reason for hope, even though the actual unemployment rate ticked up last month, from 9.7% to 9.9%
Retail sales were also better, though - as expected - weaker than last month’s explosive growth. The figure was moderately better (+0.4%) with or without auto sales factored in.
The Michigan Sentiment Index also ticked higher, to 73.3, snapping a concerning losing streak.
The two monthly ‘biggies’ were capacity utilization and industrial production. Both have a strong correlation with the long-term market trend, and as such, are deserving of a chart today. So, take a look, bearing in mind we’ve plotted the production index (based at 100) rather than the percentage increase or decrease the media discusses.
Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production, vs. S&P 500
Both moved upward, and therefore, both continue to suggest long-term bullishness.
As for the coming week, it’s a moderate one in terms of number, but a big one in terms of impact. Building permits are expected to move higher again on Tuesday (to 715K), while producer and consumer inflation will be unveiled on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Both are expected to be flat, as they have been for a while… stunningly. Given the low-inflation environment, a persistent lack of inflation is troubling.
Leading indicators will be announced on Thursday; economists are looking for a tepid 0.2% improvement. The Philadelphia Fed’s economic indicator is expected to show equally tepid improvement, rising from 20.2 to 22.2 on Thursday.
Economic Calendar
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