Economic Announcement Calendar - Look Back, Look Ahead

Posted by

April 29, 2010

It was a fairly light week on the economic front, and what little news we got was neither impactful, nor surprising.

Home prices finally rose on a year over year basis, but comparing February 2010’s prices to February 2009’s prices isn’t that big of a deal - we’re still well in the red on a multi-year basis. Yet, it’s something.

New and initial unemployment claims were pretty much flat, and the early Q1 GDP growth reading of 3.2% was (like home prices) better than the alternative, but somewhat uninspiring in the bigger picture. Again, the comparisons are woefully easy to improve on.

As for consumer confidence, the Conference Board says consumers are felling better, while the folks at Michigan say they’re getting worried again. We’ll look at that split decision in more detail below.

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - May 2nd, 2010

When we say that consumer confidence is a split decision (between the Conference Board’s number and the Michigan Sentiment Index), we don’t just mean it was a one-month quirk…. their respective - and opposing - trends have been developing for months. It’s a real testament to the notion that if you look hard enough and long enough, you can find whatever data you want to support whatever outlook you want to adopt.

Between the two, the Conference Board’s figure tends to be a little less erratic, as well as more useful to investors since it tends to boast a higher correlation with the direction stocks are moving. As such, that confidence chart is now actually bullish…for the long haul. It certainly doesn’t stave off a possibly short-term correction though.

Consumer Confidence: Conference Board Vs. Michigan