3D TV Isn’t a Game-Changer Just Yet

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March 14, 2010

After years of speculation and dreaming, the era of 3D television is upon us…. mostly. That ‘mostly’ is the part of the technological leap that has investors on the fence with the latest upgrade to the TV-viewing experience. Concepts and know-how are the seeds of future fruit, but both are irrelevant to investors without sales and earnings.

Details, details….: Technically speaking, Samsung won the race to the 3D television market last week, unveiling the first-ever LED television capable of serving up three-dimensional television content. Panasonic (NYSE:PC) unveiled its 3D television the next day, almost to the same warm reception. Sony’s (NYSE:SNE) will be out in June.

The price for Samsung’s total package – the 46 inch TV, plus the 3D Blu-ray player, and the glasses required for true 3D viewing – will initially cost about $3000…. considerably (perhaps excessively) more than comparable television sets sans 3D capabilities. Panasonic’s package price is on par, at about $2900, and available exclusively at Best Buy (NYSE:BBY).

A (big) leap of faith: A price lower than $3000 may still be needlessly-expensive for most consumers. Or, any price at all may be too great, according to a CNBC poll last week.

Of the respondents asked “Do you plan to buy a 3D television for your home?”, a hefty 57% said prices would need to be much lower first. Another 35% said they’d never buy one. The former is a problem that can be solved, but the latter may be a nut that’s never cracked, as some consumers really don’t “come around after a while”.

What needs to change to make these televisions more marketable? For starters, more 3D content.

Dreamworks Animation (NASDAQ: DWA) has partnered with Samsung to offer 3D version of Shrek and Monsters vs. Aliens. Two movies down…. tens of thousands to go before 3D television libraries can rival traditional TV content libraries. It will take years to get there. But, the industry can get there while the price of the TVs moves lower. And, television networks are working on 3D broadcast as well. Walt Disney’s (NYSE:DIS) ESPN network, for instance, intends to broadcast 2010’s World Cup soccer matches in 3D.

It’s a big - and slow - paradigm shift for studios and networks though. and some may find it cost prohibitive.

The ‘never’ group of polled consumers, however, may be more in-tune with 3D television’s reality more than any of its current and would-be fans. Between the bulky (and costly) glasses required for three-dimensional viewing, and the fact that excessive 3D viewing has been said to cause vertigo and nausea, and the sheer price of the TVs themselves, most consumers may simply draw the line on this side of the big technological leap.

By the numbers: To their credit, even though the 3D television manufacturers are bullish on the technology, they’re at least aware this is going to be a small piece of the TV market for a while. Samsung, as an example, only expects 3 million to 4 million of the 35 million or so television sets it’s apt to sell in the U.S. in 2010, will be three-dimensional capable.

Even then, given a long list of current drawbacks, that may be on overly-aggressive expectation for 3D televisions.

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