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Investment Ideas: NPBC, CEDC, HF, COP

In defiance of the marketwide selling, and despite the terrible performance over the past twelve months, investors are flowing into National Penn Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:NPBC). Perhaps these buyers are focused on - and rightfully so - the projected next twelve months.

National Penn Bancshares is expected to return to profitability again in 2010, earning $0.27 per share in the process. Moreover, investors are starting to realize the turnaround… and doing something about it. NPBC moved above its 200 day line recently, and has hit new multi-month highs on growing volume. There’s plenty more room to keep moving upward though.

After four consecutive quarterly ‘beats’, coupled with the fact that Central European Distribution Corp. (NASDAQ:CEDC) sailed through the recession very few bumps or bruises [not including some accounting-only hits], one would think the stock is a no-brainer. But, the dip from the latter part of last year has set up anew buying opportunity - signaled by an accumulation alert. The fact that all of this happened after CEDC found support at the 200 day line is just a nice little kicker.

As for valuation, there are two you need to know…. the past-twelve month P/E of 18.9, and the forward-looking one of 13.2. The former is palatable, but the latter is a reason to buy…. and investors are. And remember, Central European Distribution has been topping estimates of late - he future P/E of 13.2 may still be too high.

It may be a little pre-emptive, but with HFF Inc. (NYSE:HF) on the verge of completing the handle portion of a cup and handle pattern, the time to step in may be sooner than later. Why? Stocks tend to accelerate pretty quickly once the barrier’s been broken.

In this instance, the chart’s renewed strength is actually reflective of the impending financials. HFF Inc. had been taking losses, but managed to break-even last quarter. The company’s expected to earn $0.02 per share for Q4 of 2009, and a total of $0.24 per share in 2010. Though that still leaves the stock on the expensive side, the chart’s suggesting that the market doesn’t care.

As a mortgage play, HFF Inc. feels risk at this juncture. However, aside from the fact that it’s a contrarian idea, even a tepid improvement in real estate lending is an improvement.

The proverbial line in the sand is around $7.00.

Though in the red today, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is setting up - on a technical basis - as one of the highest-potential oil rebound plays among the major names in oil and gas market. With help from support at its 100 day moving average line, COP is knocking on the door of new multi-month highs. That ceiling as currently just a hair over $54; if ConocoPhillips can knock it out, there’s little resistance left until the $90 area.

Yes, it’s an oil play, which includes some risk. With a forecasted EPS of $6.29 for the coming year (which brings the ofrward0looking P/E to under 9.0), it’s a good risk. Oil prices and oil demand just have to hold steady, which hasn’t been a problem during the economic recovery process yet.

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